Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Wed Dec 01 2004 05:14 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Just when I was dispairing that the Bulls had abandoned the field, they
stage an "Accumulation" day like this.  There were lots of "reasons",
not the least of which was crude prices dropping $3/bbl.  I guess the
oil pit traders decided, "well, we can't play THIS game anymore."

Prices were up enough to be significant on their own, and volume was
+19% above average.  That's more than enough for my conservative formula
to call it "accumulation".

The thing is, if the Bulls want us to believe in them, they have to show
us an ability to move the market consistently--and they haven't.
Looking forward, I think it would be a really good thing for the market
to close the year above 1200.  It started at 1108, so that would be an
8.3% increase for the year.  It's positive, and the long term average is
between 10-11%, so it's not a terrible showing.  I commend to you my
chart between the summer of 1994 and January 1st on my website's
"Tracking the Market" page (see below).  I'll be updating it around New
Years.  Things are not as rosey as they might seem, if all you can
remember is last year's 30% gains.

You might hear some enthusiastic technicians say this has been the flag
of a "flagpole" formation and give you a target of about 1250-1260 for
its completion.  Basically they want another 80pt run up like we had
during the last week of October and first half of November.  Sounds
nice, but I wouldn't bet on it.  And if we DID, I'd be itching to take
the money and run.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     __<_     __>_     >___     __|_     ___>     11/24
 __|_     __<_     __>_     <___     __>_     ___>     11/26
 _|__     __<_     __>_     _<__     __|_     ___>     11/29
 _<__     _<__     __>_     __<_     _|__     ___>     11/30
 ___|     _<__     __>_     __<_     __<_     ___>     12/01

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... He died to take away your sins, not your mind.
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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