Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Tue Nov 30 2004 04:27 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Well, yesterday's close seemed to be consistent overhead resistance
today.  Prices closed down modestly again today, but volume increased to
+8% above average.  Sellers were not amused.

As you can see below, the Oscillator fell into negative territory today,
meaning the Advance-Decline ratio has accelerated to the decline side.
Prices are very close to touching the 20-day moving average.  Now,
that's a very unofficial technical indicator--the 50-day is generally
taken by "technicians" as the short term indicator.  I track it as an
"early warning".  And my own "timing indicator" continues to fall.
While prices are still stuck in this tight horizontal trading range, my
indicator is the lowest it has been in nearly a month!  In short, I'm
getting alerts that the trend may be changing, downward.

I saw something encouraging in the paper today.  The big headline was
about a $300K city settlement of abuse claims.  But somebody had the
critical thinking skills to pull out a pen and on the page do the
division.  The average settlement certainly isn't enough to make major
headline news, but then the paper wouldn't have had an easy story!  I
applaud whomever it was that had the intelligence to be a little
skeptical.

It's for the same sort of reason I have to run my numbers every day.
I'm not getting this important objective analysis anywhere else in the
media.  On the other hand, I also run it because being told isn't the
same as doing it oneself.  Critical thinking skill is one thing that
separates scientific hypotheses from crack-pot fantasies.  It's an
important skill for investors too.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     __<_     __>_     _>__     __|_     ___>     11/23
 __|_     __<_     __>_     >___     __|_     ___>     11/24
 __|_     __<_     __>_     <___     __>_     ___>     11/26
 _|__     __<_     __>_     _<__     __|_     ___>     11/29
 _<__     _<__     __>_     __<_     _|__     ___>     11/30

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... If life were logical, MEN would ride side-saddle.
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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