Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon Nov 29 2004 02:57 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The market got back to normal today.  It basiclly undid the low-volume
gains last week.  Volume mostly recovered, down -8% below average.
That's reasonable.

Something's got to break one of these days.  For the last two and a half
weeks the market has been in an unnaturally tight horizontal trading
range, mostly from 1173 to 1184.  It can go on for a few weeks, but the
longer it goes the more likely it is to break sharply.  My timing signal
has been weakening all the way.  Some traders try to play these by
buying "in the money" index puts and calls.  When it breaks one will
become worthless but the other makes money in a quick move--hopefully
enough to recoup the cost of both options and a profit.  One thing that
makes it work is a period like this reduces the options' volatility
premium, making them cheaper.

Over all, I'd say the Bulls didn't follow through on their push through
the resistance of the year's channel, or trading range, as one hopes for.
The push above the year's highs around 1160 was made on below average
volume.  I don't think this dog can hunt.  If I was counting on a short
term rally into the winter holidays to make some money, I'd be taking it
off the table.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __<_     ___<     __>_     _>__     __<_     ___>     11/22
 _<__     __<_     __>_     _>__     __|_     ___>     11/23
 __|_     __<_     __>_     >___     __|_     ___>     11/24
 __|_     __<_     __>_     <___     __>_     ___>     11/26
 _|__     __<_     __>_     _<__     __|_     ___>     11/29

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... If Chekov owned a computer, would it be a Wax?
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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