Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon Nov 22 2004 04:17 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The major influence for this week is most likely going to be the
holiday.  Even today, volume was down -10% below average.  Prices were
below the line but basically flat all morning, rising above the line on
heavier volume, i.e. buying, but then flattening in the afternoon.

Low-volume pre-holidays can be good tactical positions for counter-
cyclical buying or selling.  Because of the absence of many traders
ready to correct imbalances, any slight imbalance of buying or selling
can be amplified in the price change.  We can sometimes use that to our
advantage if the price movement goes against the trend.  It's a little
risky, but if you really know a stock and its movements well, you might
profit from momentary stupidity in the market.

However, it can be tricky to interpret the market action.  When the
trading floor is half-empty, the typical law of supply and demand, the
price/volume relationship, can be misleading.  A high-volume day might
appear to be a low volume day, all things considered.  Relatively little
buying can drive what appears to be a rally, or its flip-side.  So we
can't necesarily believe everything we see this week.  We just have to
believe sanity will return.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     ___>     __>_     _<__     __|_     ___>     11/16
 __<_     ___>     __>_     __|_     __|_     ___>     11/17
 __<_     ___>     __>_     _|__     __<_     ___>     11/18
 _<__     ___>     __>_     _>__     __<_     ___>     11/19
 __<_     ___<     __>_     _>__     __<_     ___>     11/22

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Use Mental Floss daily to help prevent Truth Decay.
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