Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Nov 19 2004 04:19 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Today Greenspan spoke about foreign investment in the US markets to
European investors in Frankfurt.  In plain English he said unless and
until America gets it's foreign account deficit and federal budget
deficit under control the dollar will slide further, i.e. be less
desireable worldwide as a repository of wealth, and intrest rates
will rise as those foreign investors demand more to compensate for
currency risk.  (See my commentary last Friday.  Guess the timing of
my shift of 15% into a European fund Tuesday wasn't so bad after all.)

The problem is, there are some in positions of power and influence who
believe it was proved 20 years ago that "deficits don't matter."  The
Street didn't share that dogma, and pragmatically sold heavily.  And
that hammered the market from the get-go.  Prices quickly fell about
15pts and stayed there all day.  Volume increased some, heavily during
the sell-off, to nearly average.  Not good, but not panic selling
either.

Some would call it a "distribution" day; I wouldn't go so far.  Perhaps
the Street is following my scenario of staging a correction.  We won't
know until we see if support comes in around 1160 or so.

I have one last thought on the Sears/Kmart merger.  Those who remember
Tyco should also remember the tactic of engaging in M&A in order to
confuse the public and analysts about the true state of the balance
sheet.  Mergers are hard to pull off profitably.  And with two companies
who have had their share of trouble?  I wouldn't own either one today.
Me, a skeptic?  I trust you have proof.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _>__     ___>     __>_     _<__     __>_     ___>     11/15
 _|__     ___>     __>_     _<__     __|_     ___>     11/16
 __<_     ___>     __>_     __|_     __|_     ___>     11/17
 __<_     ___>     __>_     _|__     __<_     ___>     11/18
 _<__     ___>     __>_     _>__     __<_     ___>     11/19

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Computer Fact #37: Interchangeable devices won't.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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