Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu Nov 18 2004 05:47 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Today's market action was a bit disturbing.  S&P Prices oscillated some
but were basically flat, closing up slightly.  Volume was subdued, down
-4% below average.  That's not so bad.  But what disturbs me was the
DJIA intraday action.  Four or five times prices hit an impervious
resistance line.  That's a definite, "Nope, not going there!"

Now, this is similar to my commentary Monday, is it good news or bad?
Then, even though the day's action was negative, I pointed out that
having a 20pt correction now could really be a good thing.  Corrections
are necessary in healthy Bull markets.

So, this action is concerning.  But we often hear, "Bull markets climb a
wall of worry".  This behavior certainly seems to indicate investors
were worried about the DJIA going higher.  We can't tell if investors
are "too worried" yet.

The contrarian in me also wants to point out that this is hardly a Bull
market yet.  So maybe I shouldn't be reading too much into the intraday
action until there's a more definite trend in place.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     ___>     __>_     __<_     ___>     ___>     11/12
 _>__     ___>     __>_     _<__     __>_     ___>     11/15
 _|__     ___>     __>_     _<__     __|_     ___>     11/16
 __<_     ___>     __>_     __|_     __|_     ___>     11/17
 __<_     ___>     __>_     _|__     __<_     ___>     11/18

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Ground water? Do you mean crushed ice?
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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