Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Wed Nov 17 2004 05:01 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Prices recovered somewhat today, but they did their best before
mid-afternoon.  Volume rose too, up 11% above average.  If it hadn't
been for that late afternoon unwillingness to pay the going price for
stocks, this might have been an "accumulation" day, but wasn't.  So it
wasn't a bad day for the Bulls, but not a "shining hour".

The market seemed to shrug-off this morning's releast of the Consumer
Price Index, which was the highest in 6-months, and tied the highest for
the past year.  But as I suggested yesterday with the release of the
wholesale prices affected by oil, it couldn't have surprized anyone.
Still, this presages inflation and higher interest rates.  Higher rates,
bad for bonds.

Apparently the morning rally was prompted bu Kmart buying Sears for
$11B.  Kmart was in Chapter 11 a couple years ago.  Is this really a
good idea?  Although the question has some political overtones to
attitudes about business, as investors we need to be able to ask these
kinds of questions objectively.  If it really isn't, then eventually the
chickens will come home to roost, and we don't want to be underneath.

Pretty clearly this is another step in the "Walmartization" of American
retailing and hence consumer products production.  If you can't do
business on their terms, your company seems to be in trouble.  There are
some pretty obvious investing issues here, but I really believe some
larger, longer term issues which will also have profound effects on
world economies.  And again, I have to ask the question, "is this really
a good idea?"  As investors, members of this "ownership society", I
think we really need to be concerned, not only for the short-term
money-making ploys, but for the longer-term results of the world we will
be living in.  I just can't see how the end-game is going to turn out.
I can see how some of the "sides" are going to line up, some of the
"field", but are there even going to be winners?  I'm not sure.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     ___>     __>_     _|__     __|_     ___>     11/11
 __>_     ___>     __>_     __<_     ___>     ___>     11/12
 _>__     ___>     __>_     _<__     __>_     ___>     11/15
 _|__     ___>     __>_     _<__     __|_     ___>     11/16
 __<_     ___>     __>_     __|_     __|_     ___>     11/17

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... If GOD doesn't like how I live, let HIM tell me
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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