Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Mon Nov 15 2004 05:10 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Yesterday's close became today resistance line, a ceiling the market
kept bumping its head on all day.  Volume relaxed to -4% below average.

So far, so good.  But as you can see the volume trend has begun to roll
over.  The past 18pts up has come on below average volume.  Is that good
news or bad?

In just over 3 weeks we're up nearly 90pts.  We can't keep doing that.
So some sort of corrective action is probably in the cards.  Is it going
to be a "pause to refresh", or is there going to be some significant
profit-taking?  We'll know by the volume!  That's why I track it daily.
If we dropped 20-30pts on falling volume over the next couple weeks it
wouldn't hurt the overall Bullish trend.  As a matter of fact, if prices
fell back close to the year's previous highs just under 1160, say, 1165,
and bounced up, it would tend to create the impression that is a
"support level".  Support levels tend to inspire confidence in the
market.  But then the Bulls have to move it back through a recovery
phase.

Let me be clear, I'm speaking from the viewpoint of a stock HOLDER.  The
question is:  "Is it safe to hold with the expectation of more profits
to come?"  If you've been out of the market and this scenario comes to
pass, buying at the 1165 level could be "trying to catch a falling
knife."  If you just have to do that, you need to keep your finger on
the trigger in case profit-taking and selling take hold, to mix
metaphors.  That's the sort of time I wouldn't even wait for a 7% drop
to admit a mistake and retreat.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _>__     ___>     __|_     _>__     __<_     ___>     11/09
 _<__     ___>     __>_     _>__     __<_     ___>     11/10
 __|_     ___>     __>_     _|__     __|_     ___>     11/11
 __>_     ___>     __>_     __<_     ___>     ___>     11/12
 _>__     ___>     __>_     _<__     __>_     ___>     11/15

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Fortunately, I had a backup dated 1/1/80
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