Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Nov 12 2004 06:32 pm

Content-type: text/plain

The morning's start was a little rocky, but by mid-morning the market
got its act together and it was onward & upward the rest of the day.
Prices closed up 70% of what it would take to be significant, and volume
improved, now +1% above average.

International investors don't care about red states and blue states,
just the color of money.  If the Administration doesn't adjust its
policies in consideration of the international community, it's mutual.
The problem is we need their money to float our underwater "current
account", and to finance our deficit spending.  The fact is, it's not
the Administration, but international investors who determine the
relative desireability of American investments versus foreign and
international investments.  That may not be a pleasant thought.  I'm
thinking about how I can use this to protect my investments.  I've often
suggested we cannot let our politics dictate our investing strategies.

The dollar will consequently fluctuate as a consequence of American
policies.  We know the dollar has been falling in value.  Gold is
another commodity and has it's own influences, but how many dollars an
ounce of gold will buy (you don't often think of it in those terms, do
you?) is one measure of the falling dollar.

If dollars are losing value, how can I put my dollars to work in a
relatively more stable storehouse of value?  I'm going to be looking at
international mutual funds.  It's a bit late, I've been aleep at the
switch--I should have done this when the dollar bought more shares of
international companies.  The international fund I'm looking at has
grown in value twice as much as my S&P500 fund in the past year, in part
reflecting the devaluation of the dollar.  I'm buying too late, after
the investment has made major gains.   But the question is: what happens
if the dollar drops even more?  Could that happen?  Yeah, it could.  I
can "hedge" against a falling dollar by having some of my investments in
international mutual funds.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _>__     ___>     __|_     _>__     __|_     ___>     11/08
 _>__     ___>     __|_     _>__     __<_     ___>     11/09
 _<__     ___>     __>_     _>__     __<_     ___>     11/10
 __|_     ___>     __>_     _|__     __|_     ___>     11/11
 __>_     ___>     __>_     __<_     ___>     ___>     11/12

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... I get mail, therefore I exist.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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