Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Wed Nov 10 2004 05:30 pm

Content-type: text/plain

It took over an hour for the Street to figure out what to think about
the Fed's increase of short-term rates, and more importantly its
announcement of the current state of the economy.  Prices swung rapidly,
up, down, up, down, up, and finally down below the line.  Volume
increased a bit, but still -2% below average.

The Street finally acknowledged that what the Fed is doing is going to
keep the economy from "over-heating", and that's going to affect
corporate earnings.  The problem is consumer confidence, particularly as
it applies to employment, has been falling.  A slower economy, which is
likely to keep CEO's from increasing payrolls, isn't going to make Main
Street feel any better.  Consumers are about two-thirds of the economy,
so if Main Street gets conservative about its spending, that also feeds
back into corporate earnings and payrolls.  This feedback loop makes
achieving a stable economy difficult.  It tends to go unstable, into
inflationary or deflationary spirals.

But for now, we need to see some follow-through from the Bulls pretty
soon.  If this is all they've got, I fear we'll fall back into that old
channel.  That would NOT be good news.  This is the time of year when
we're most likely to have a nice rally.  "Wait for it!"

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 ___>     __>_     __|_     __>_     ___>     ___>     11/04
 __>_     __>_     __|_     __>_     __>_     ___>     11/05
 _>__     ___>     __|_     _>__     __|_     ___>     11/08
 _>__     ___>     __|_     _>__     __<_     ___>     11/09
 _<__     ___>     __>_     _>__     __<_     ___>     11/10

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

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