Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Tue Nov 09 2004 04:37 pm

Content-type: text/plain

I've been meaning to write a page for my website about "lying with
charts and numbers."  One of these days...  Today was one where one
could easily have deceived oneself if one just looked at an intra-day
chart.  Most such charts use self adjusting scales so they present the
data comfortably filling the space allowed--that's often misleading!
It appeared that there were a couple rallies, one in early morning and
another in late afternoon that fizzled out.  That wouldn't be so good.

I typically also want to see something like a 5-day chart to see how the
day fits with recent action.  Now, what THAT showed me is the market has
been trading in another "horizontal trading range" between 1160-1170
since Friday's open when viewed with a 50pt range.  So with the
viewpoint of the past few weeks, this is pretty clearly just a "pause in
the action".

Of course, it still wouldn't be so good if the market stalled-out here
and couldn't continue its push higher.  As a matter of fact, I think it
would be taken quite badly--we're not so far out of this year's
declining trading range that investors wouldn't "run for cover"!  Oil
prices continue to fall, and the Fed has another announcement coming out
tomorrow with it's expected quarter-point rate hike.  One could
understand today could reasonably be a pause, waiting for confirmation
of the economy from the Fed.  But we've see the Bulls get cold feet
before, so I'd stay alert.

That said, prices were essentially unchanged and volume increased some,
but was still -5% below average.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     _|__     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___|     11/03
 ___>     __>_     __|_     __>_     ___>     ___>     11/04
 __>_     __>_     __|_     __>_     __>_     ___>     11/05
 _>__     ___>     __|_     _>__     __|_     ___>     11/08
 _>__     ___>     __|_     _>__     __<_     ___>     11/09

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Thesaurus - dinosaur with a large vocabulary.
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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