Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu Nov 04 2004 06:20 pm

Content-type: text/plain

THIS is the sort of action we WANT to see when we break into a new
trend!  Prices closed up 30% more than necessary to be significant, and
volume continued strong, +19% above average.  That's a clear sign
investors were buying with abandon.  Two days in a row my formula calls
it an "Accumulation" day.  Not only are we above this year's resistance
line, but we are peeking above my major resistance line at the peaks in
January, February and March just under 1160.  This is the highest
closing price all year!

Why?  Well, first, crude closed under $49/bbl on decreasing concern
about supplies.  And second, we've been trapped in this 70pt trading
range all year--the Bulls were just waiting for an excuse to cut loose.
But don't forget, one thing they often do is get us all excited then
sell into the strength they created and then some, driving the rally to
the breaking point with the excess supply.

So if your cash is burning a hole in your pocket, I'd put about a third
into the market now, but wait for the inevitable correction that follows
such a rapid, sharp move.  Then another third, and keep a third in
reserve for "targets of opportunity".  Or I'd also feel good about doing
half when we see how the correction goes, and holding half.  But be
wary!  We don't know yet what level might be reliable "support", a
relatively safe buying level.  This could be just short-lived euphoria.
We do need to see what happens during the correction.  DON'T LOSE BIG!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     _|__     __|_     _>__     __>_     ___<     10/29
 __>_     _|__     __|_     _>__     __|_     ___|     11/01
 __|_     _|__     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___|     11/02
 __>_     _|__     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___|     11/03
 ___>     __>_     __|_     __>_     ___>     ___>     11/04

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Only the survivors write histories.
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