Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Wed Nov 03 2004 05:02 pm

Content-type: text/plain

"GET OVER IT!", Part 2.  As bad as dwelling on our investing mistakes
may be, the pain tends to make them self-correcting.  All the novice
investors who jumped into the market at the end of the "Gay 90's" for
the "easy money", are likely to think twice--those of them that weren't
scared out of the market for good.

What can be more dangerous to us are our successes.  If we find a very
successful tactic, like "The Dogs of the Dow", we're likely to do it
again and again, doubling up, until we're risking way too much.  When we
begin to think we can do no wrong, we never make mistakes, we're heading
for a fall.  It's a combination of ego and greed, and it's deadly for
successful investing.  The biggest mistake of all is thinking we can't
make a mistake.  Everybody makes mistakes!

Successful investors use tactics that protect them from making big
mistakes, like being ready to admit to many little mistakes, i.e. the 7%
Solution.  Google hit $200/s today.  Were you one of the enthusiasts who
rushed to buy the IPO when it came out at $100/s?  SSELLLL!  Well, at
least half your position that returns your initial investment and gives
you a riskless position in the remainder.  That's another example of a
successful investor's tactic.  They know if they get greedy, hang on too
long, they could be holding a $5 stock.  Remember when JDS-Uniphase was
everybody's favorite?

If we're going to be successful investors we have to realize every day
is a new day in the market.  We need to emotionally overcome BOTH our
wins and losses.  We need to "get over it".

Today the market rejoiced at the Bush win.  But the highest prices of
the day came in the first half-hour.  After that prices slowly faded
throughout the day as reality set in.  Things are not so much different
today than they were yesterday.  Still, prices closed up almost enough
to be significant and trading was "brisk".  Volume was up +19% above
average.  That was enough for my formula to call it an "Accumulation"
day.

This might be an opportunity for a new trend to start, but don't count
on it.  Never "count in it".  Crude supplies in and coming into the Gulf
are recovering from the hurricane damage.  Investors might develop a new
outlook for the future, especially surrendering to the traditional
winter rally.  But be cautious.  We seem to be pushing above the
channel's upper resistance line, showing some strength.  Look for the
market to retest that resistance line sometime soon.  If we're starting
a new trend we want to see that become a support line.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     _>__     __|_     __>_     __>_     ___<     10/28
 __>_     _|__     __|_     _>__     __>_     ___<     10/29
 __>_     _|__     __|_     _>__     __|_     ___|     11/01
 __|_     _|__     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___|     11/02
 __>_     _|__     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___|     11/03

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... A waist is a terrible thing to mind.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35
---
 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

.