Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Fri Oct 29 2004 06:37 pm

Content-type: text/plain

What's important about today's action is that nothing much happened.
The market was all over the map today, but within a range of only 7pts.
Prices closed up a bit, but volume was just a skosh below average.  I
think that's probably an indication mutual fund managers are finished
with their restructurings.

I think you ought to expect some volatility next week.  We see that
often when the Fed announcements are released.  Prices jump one way or
other immediately, but often the initial response is reversed a while
later.  It takes a while to really analyze what it actually means.
We're likely to see prices ping-pong with the news.  But they'll settle
down.  Really, they will.  Then investors will take the time to reassess
the state of affairs.  That's really a good thing--they'll be looking
forward!  Their view may be a little cloudy, that's to be expected.  You
see that?  "To be expected"!  I think then we may see a new trend in the
market begin to take shape.

So should we expect a "Winter rally"?  Don't EXPECT anything specific of
the market.  Remember a few days ago I suggested some of the Street
denizens would like to create such a rally to take some profits, and
perpetuate the fiction that the Bear is far behind us by finishing with
an "up year"?  I'm not predicting the future direction of the market!
I'm suggesting the motivation of a segment of investors.  There may not
be enough of them, they may not get their way.

Let the market TELL US where it wants to go.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     _>__     _|__     _>__     _|__     ___<     10/25
 ___|     _>__     _|__     __>_     _|__     ___<     10/26
 ___>     _>__     __|_     ___>     __>_     ___<     10/27
 __>_     _>__     __|_     __>_     __>_     ___<     10/28
 __>_     _|__     __|_     _>__     __>_     ___<     10/29

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  10/27/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... If ignorance isn't bliss, I don't know what is.
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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