Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Tue Oct 26 2004 06:01 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Consumer confidence numbers were released this morning.  They fell,
primarily on the public's dismal outlook for jobs in the next six
months.  No "rosey scenario" there.  The Norwegian oil news was short-
lived, as crude prices rose again today.  And Marsh & McClennan's new
management dumped the fee structure Spitzer was suing over--good news
for the insurance industry particularly.  There was an early rumor that
a computer buy program had kicked-in, so in spite of all the bad news
apparently, market prices were strong all day.  Volume was heavy too, up
+18% above average.  So my formula called this an "Accumulation" day.

If it has been the mutual funds contributing to the higher volume over
the past months, well, they have to buy something too--most have limits
on the amount of cash they can keep.  They've got to be ready by the end
of the week, so we'll see next week what other investors really think of
the market.  Huh?  Oh.  Yeah, well forget that.  As soon as we know, say
sometime in December, THEN the market will calm down.  The Street is
basically apolitical--a dollar is a dollar.  If asked, more people on
the Street may be Republican, but they also know the market has done a
little better in Democratic administrations.  Uncertainty is what it
doesn't like.  If it replays 2000, then expect a "difficult" market.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     _|__     _|__     ___>     _|__     ___<     10/20
 __|_     _>__     _|__     __>_     _|__     ___<     10/21
 _<__     _>__     _|__     __>_     _|__     ___<     10/22
 _<__     _>__     _|__     _>__     _|__     ___<     10/25
 ___|     _>__     _|__     __>_     _|__     ___<     10/26

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  10/13/04 S&P:    1114
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +4

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... When money speaks, truth keeps silent.
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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