Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Thu Oct 21 2004 05:38 pm

Content-type: text/plain

Prices were pretty choppy intraday, closing up only a little.  Volume
continued well above average, +20%, as the mutual funds reallocate.

This is good evidence of who the real players in the market are, and it
isn't Main Street, at least not directly.  The way to make money in the
short-term is to be "in the swing" with the stocks the mutual funds
like.  They've got the muscle to move the market one way and another.
The fact that they're moving lots of stock now and prices aren't going
anywhere much tells me a thing or two.  Professional investors aren't
particularly optimistic nor pessimistic, the action isn't "setting them
off".  Of course, they're doing their buying and selling cautiously,
watching the tape, because they don't want to move the market, until
they're ready that is.  It implies the market is likely to be more of
the same, a proverbial "stock picker's" market.  We're still seeing
stocks get slaughtered if companies miss their earnings.  Of course,
that's not entirely the companies' fault--it was the Street that
irrationally "paid for perfection".

I'd be really cautious about getting faked-out by an apparent "Santa
Claus" rally.  I'd maybe use it as an opportunity to take profits and
cut losses selling into strength.  But I wouldn't expect it to
necessarily last far into January.  January is frequently a tough month.
I'd maybe have one number in mind that was "good enough" where I'd sell
half a position, then have my finger poised on the trigger to ride the
second half as long as prices kept rallying, but sell on the first
appearance of a breakdown.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __<_     _>__     _|__     ___>     _<__     ___<     10/15
 __|_     _>__     _|__     __>_     _|__     ___<     10/18
 _|__     _>__     _|__     ___>     _|__     ___<     10/19
 __|_     _|__     _|__     ___>     _|__     ___<     10/20
 __|_     _>__     _|__     __>_     _|__     ___<     10/21

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  10/13/04 S&P:    1114
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +4

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Make another pot of coffee...I'm gonna read mail.
___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35
---
 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

.