Subj : Market Action
To   : All
From : Paul Rogers
Date : Wed Oct 20 2004 05:58 pm

Content-type: text/plain

This new header is my latest, and perhaps better attempt to get this
commentary rendered in a reasonable form for those of you who use
web-based or HTML enabled email clients.

Again the market spent most of the day underwater, seeing black numbers
for only a few minutes at mid-session and at the end.  Volume continued
high, +22% above average.

I saw someone else's commentary that traders are likely to wait until
after the election to try move the market.  Well, perhaps, but I think
what we're seeing over the past week has been the mutual fund managers
cleaning up their portfolios for their FY-end.  They're distributing
stock out over a couple weeks so they don't disturb the market too much.
We can tell if I'm right by watching volume for the next week and a
half, it should remain high and drop significantly at month-end.  But
then, that's just before election-day this time.  So who knows what will
happen?

I think it could be useful to watch how the mutual fund managers are
changing their portfolios.  What their asset allocations are for the
year ahead could be revealing.  They'll publish that eventually, too
late to be useful.  We can see it in real time by looking at the daily
reports in terms of volume.  Which stocks are being traded at double
average daily volume day after day, and are they being bid-up or dumped
at any price?  What themes can we infer of all this trading?  Don't look
for confirmation of a preconception, absorb it all and let it speak to
you in its own voice.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     _|__     _|__     __>_     _<__     ___|     10/14
 __<_     _>__     _|__     ___>     _<__     ___<     10/15
 __|_     _>__     _|__     __>_     _|__     ___<     10/18
 _|__     _>__     _|__     ___>     _|__     ___<     10/19
 __|_     _|__     _|__     ___>     _|__     ___<     10/20

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  10/13/04 S&P:    1114
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +4

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html



Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com                       -o)
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers                   /\\
Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates.     _\_V

.... Puns are bad, but poetry is verse!
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 * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360)

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