Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Oct 19 2004 06:39 pm


This morning the market reacted to 3M's confession lowering earnings
expectations.  At noon prices rallied on profit-taking lowering prices
in the oil patch.  Apparently the word started circulating that oil
prices were demonstrably depressing demand and slowing the economy.
DOH!  So some oil traders decided prices probably couldn't be inflated
much more and decided to take the money and run.  The market closed up
modestly on lower volume, still +2% above average.

One thing that's certainly going on nowadays is arbitrageurs are playing
oil prices off against the market.  They're hedging the market against
oil futures contracts.  OK, so now market prices aren't just going to
react to economic and earnings news, now they're going to react to fears
and rumors about oil supply and demand.  Don't be trying to force
profits out of this market.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     _|__     __|_     __>_     _<__     ___|     10/12
 _<__     _|__     _|__     __>_     _<__     ___|     10/13
 _<__     _|__     _|__     __>_     _<__     ___|     10/14
 __<_     _>__     _|__     ___>     _<__     ___<     10/15
 __|_     _>__     _|__     __>_     _|__     ___<     10/18

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  10/13/04 S&P:    1114
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +4

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Attributable to the innate perversity of nature. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .