Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Oct 14 2004 05:51 pm 

Sometimes I really have to laugh at the Street.  Sometimes it seems like
one must be a manic/depressive to work on the Street.  Suddenly they
seem to think the sky is falling!

Prices on both the DJIA & OTC spent the day falling, and the S&P just
saw above the line for a few minutes.  But they fell even more than
yesterday, the DJIA below 10,000.  Volume is the key, and while it was
less than yesterday, it was still +13% above average.  So once again my
formula calls it a Distribution Day.  Clearly sellers ruled the day.

Prices are now below all the usual moving averages, and that's typically
very negative, so perhaps I shouldn't poke fun at the Street.  Prices
could be falling a lot more.  But I've never bought the "Bull Market"
line, and I've only been hoping the Bear is denned-up for the winter.
For now, I'm going with my declining channel.  This is a "consolidation
formation".  That's a tough sort of market to make money in, if you
insist on it.  But in the long run, it's good for the market.  For a
reliable Bull Market there needs to be no doubt.  Investors have lots of
doubts.  So be conservative and patient in your strategies, and let
things work their way out in their own good time.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     _>__     __|_     __>_     _<__     ___|     10/08
 __<_     _>__     __|_     >___     _<__     ___|     10/11
 _<__     _|__     __|_     __>_     _<__     ___|     10/12
 _<__     _|__     _|__     __>_     _<__     ___|     10/13
 _<__     _|__     _|__     __>_     _<__     ___|     10/14

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  10/13/04 S&P:    1114
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +4

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Keyboard: Used for entering errors into a system. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .