Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Oct 08 2004 05:33 pm


The Labor Department released employment statistics for September today.
Only 96,000 jobs were created.  We need 150,000/mo just to keep up with
normal population growth, much less put people back to work.  Analysts
say in a typical recovery we'd be producing 250,000 jobs at this stage.

I'm sorry if you feel this is a political statement, it isn't, so I'm
going to make it anyway:  when are people going to start realizing there
has been a fundamental change in the way "American" business works in
the national and international economies?  It's not that things have to
change, things have changed!  Employment needs to be a national issue,
not rhetoric but full employment of tax-paying Americans!  Rhetoric is
what we've got, not employment.  There have to be policy adaptations
that keep Americans employed.  You may debate about what, but the status
quo isn't working!  We're going down for the second time.  And until
that happens, and when it happens, we need to recognize how it impacts
our investment strategies.  The money is being made by the "ownership"
class, not by the working class.  Can you survive by owning, not by
working?  Can most Americans?  What does that say for our future?  Those
are the realities our strategy must face.  Should we be investing in
American manufacturing companies that can't do it offshore?  What will
be the impact of poverty in the "Rust Belt", as well as the
Appalachians?  How about the lopsided balance of payments, continued
deficits caused by falling revenues (lower rates times fewer good paying
jobs) causing increasing long term interest rates, a decline on world
confidence in the credit-worthiness of America?  Things have changed.
If you're still using the investment strategies of the last century,
you may be in more trouble than you realize.

The market wasn't swayed by the rhetoric.  Prices continued to fall,
back into the trading range again.  Volume slackened to just 1% above
average.  I'd guess we're not far from my indicator popping a Sell
Signal.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     |___     __|_     ___>     __>_     ___|     10/04
 _>__     _>__     __|_     __>_     __>_     ___|     10/05
 __>_     _>__     __|_     __>_     __|_     ___|     10/06
 _|__     _>__     __|_     __>_     _|__     ___|     10/07
 _<__     _>__     __|_     __>_     _<__     ___|     10/08

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  09/28/04 S&P:    1110
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Searching for light in the darkness of insanity. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .