Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Oct 01 2004 06:05 pm


Today was an "Accumulation Day".  Prices were up more than enough to be
significant all on their own, but that's not enough.  Volume fell from
the Merck sell-off yesterday, but was still +30% above average.

Even though oil closed above $50/bbl, the ISM Manufacturing Index for
September, 58.5, showed the Street that the manufacturing sector was
still cooking.  September's index was below August's 59.0.  Anything
above 50 indicates growth.  And that brought out the Bulls.

Prices are right up against the upper, resistance, line of the trading
range I've pencilled in.  What counts now is whether it can penetrate
above, with conviction, and stay there.  In August it fell through the
bottom twice by 10pts in rapid succession, but managed to climb back
inside.  Will the Bull's show the courage of their convitions?

It could get interesting to watch.  If the mutual fund managers see a
rally developing they might just feed it by withhold some of their
selling, yet again causing a "constricted supply rally".  Then before
the end of the month they could feed their losers into the rally,
selling on strength, cutting their losses.  That would be good for their
bonuses.  Sure, the Street is a MORE honest place than it was a hundred
years ago, recent events not withstanding, but that doesn't mean the Big
Boys can't still play their games!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __<_     _<__     _|__     __|_     _<__     ___|     09/24
 __|_     |___     __|_     __|_     _|__     ___|     09/28
 __|_     <___     __|_     __|_     _|__     ___|     09/29
 _|__     <___     __|_     ___>     _|__     ___|     09/30
 ___>     <___     __|_     ___>     __>_     ___|     10/01

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  09/28/04 S&P:    1110
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Ground water? Do you mean crushed ice? ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .