Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Sep 30 2004 05:16 pm


I know what you're thinking!  You're thinking that the bobble in the
market today, the DJIA dropped over 100pts right at the open, was all
Merck's fault so we can subtract that and then things don't look so bad.
Don't do that!  You're trying to rationalize about the market.  The
market is the market.  No excuses!  Certainly selling Merck accounted
for very nearly 1 of 12 shares traded on the NYSE today, volume up +44%
above average, but even subtracting Merck volume would have still been
up +33% above average!  Since the DJIA closed down, that's Bearish
price/volume action.  Investors were disposed to selling a lot more than
just Merck.  They're thinking Merck was the first shoe.  The OTC was
little affected and rose, and the combination in the S&P was more or
less unchanged.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __<_     _<__     _|__     __|_     _<__     ___|     09/24
 _<__     _<__     _|__     __|_     _<__     ___|     09/27
 __|_     |___     __|_     __|_     _|__     ___|     09/28
 __|_     <___     __|_     __|_     _|__     ___|     09/29
 _|__     <___     __|_     ___>     _|__     ___|     09/30

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  09/28/04 S&P:    1110
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Refuse novocain - transcend dental medication. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .