Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Sep 29 2004 04:55 pm


The news today seemed to be that there's a truce in Nigeria (Cummon
guys, work it out!  This isn't the time for more oil troubles.), oil
inventories in the States actually increased last week in spite of it
all, and deliveries in Louisiana aren't going to be as difficult as
feared.  There was good new and bad news on the economic front.  The
good news is the GDP is being revised up a couple tenths of a point
(grunt, wheeze) from what was expected.  The bad news is it's still down
well below any quarter in over a year.  The OTC climbed though the first
hour and held-on all day.  The DJIA was reluctant until the last hour,
but then it rallied for what was left of the session.  So the S&P closed
modestly higher, but volume continued to expand, up +17% again today.

I still don't think that's as much Bullish buying as Bearish selling.
If it were predominantly the former prices would have moved higher.  So
I think it's an indication some of the Street holders don't want to be.
Sure, today's action on the OTC looked better, but the two markets
aren't completely independent--which is why I use the S&P.  Let's see
what the fund managers want to do in the next month.  We should expect
higher volume as they adjust, writing off and dumping losers and
offsetting those losses with profit taking.  We're going to have to
interpret the price-volume action carefully, maybe a little artfully.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     _<__     _|__     __|_     _<__     ___>     09/23
 __<_     _<__     _|__     __|_     _<__     ___|     09/24
 _<__     _<__     _|__     __|_     _<__     ___|     09/27
 __|_     |___     __|_     __|_     _|__     ___|     09/28
 __|_     <___     __|_     __|_     _|__     ___|     09/29

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  09/28/04 S&P:    1110
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... How cheerfully on the false trail they cry! ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .