Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Sep 28 2004 06:20 pm


"Why is this man smiling?"  Oil prices went through $50/bbl during the
day, and closed just shy.  Consumer Confidence numbers fell, largely
because people are worried about jobs.  They ain't buying the "rosey
scenario."  And yet the market was higher, the DJIA closed over 10,000
again.  And that might just be part of the explanation.

Call it bargain hunting, or that investors weren't willing to see prices
go that low.  Now, I've seen this happen before.  If there is intrinsic
weakness such buying can support the market for a short time, but it's
trying to hold back the tide.  Don't take that risk.

On the S&P500, prices rose enough for my timing signal to pop a BUY
signal.  That's close enough to Thursday's Sell signal that I'd be
worried about getting whipsawed.  My timing signal works best when the
signals are well separated.  What would I do?  If there is an indication
of the market trend in my charts it's that the Oscillator is still
negative, and the timing signal has actually been falling all month.
I'd go with that and ignore this Buy signal for now.  Volume increased
to +17% above average. That's more than enough for the volume side of my
Accumulation formula, but prices just weren't quite good enough.  It
does show that there was a lot of buying and selling.  The question is
who was doing what?

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 <___     _<__     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___>     09/22
 _<__     _<__     _|__     __|_     _<__     ___>     09/23
 __<_     _<__     _|__     __|_     _<__     ___|     09/24
 _<__     _<__     _|__     __|_     _<__     ___|     09/27
 __|_     |___     __|_     __|_     _|__     ___|     09/28

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  09/28/04 S&P:    1110
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Pay no attention to the man behind the curtain ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .