Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Sep 24 2004 06:25 pm


Today the market continued to be jerked around within a modest range,
but above the line.  Volume continues to be above average, +6%.

Now, this is worth exactly what you've paid for it, but let me venture a
speculation about the month to come.  Many mutual funds have their FY
end book closing at the end of October.  Finally, they have to address
their successes and failures.  It will be their opportunity to dump
their losers and take profits on some of their winners which have run
ther course, and write-off their losses against some of those profits.
Last year the market was up so much, October was essentially a
non-event.  This year was different, and it wasn't expected to be this
way.  This year the trading range has been slowly falling.  They may
have profits, but they also have losses.  There's going to be plenty of
"supply".  I think this is more likely to be an October as we've come to
fear in the past.

The market action has shown to me that investors and the Street are
watching the news, that they'd like to see a return of the Bull Market,
but there's a lot of fear that the economy and corporate earnings could
return to what we knew a couple years ago.  They're unwilling to take a
position and HOLD it!  So I reserve the caveat that my speculation
assumes there is no particular change in the news.  And it assumes the
Street doesn't suddenly react to something in the campaign.

If I'm right, the question is: how can we benefit?  Well, first, don't
try to hold back the tide.  Cut your losses short.  But if prices fall,
this could be a good opportunity to use your shopping list.  Assuming
the Street accepts the results of the election with some equanimity,
typically following October we have a "Santa Claus Rally".  We might see
that again.

I'm not PREDICTING the future, nobody can.  All I'm doing is reminding
you of the "normal" progression of the market.  But then, being an
election year, it's not exactly a normal year.  We'll see how it goes.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _<__     _<__     __|_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/20
 __|_     _<__     __|_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/21
 <___     _<__     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___>     09/22
 _<__     _<__     _|__     __|_     _<__     ___>     09/23
 __<_     _<__     _|__     __|_     _<__     ___|     09/24

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  09/23/04 S&P:    1108
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     12pts

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Zen Druids practice Transcendental Vegetation. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .