Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Sep 23 2004 07:14 pm


My timing signal flashed a SELL signal today.  This time it was a
Winner, for a gain of 12pts.  I didn't believe the Buy signal a month
ago.  So I would have lost 12pts.  That's OK, I don't think I have to
win them all.

This move began two months ago, but the turn-around and the first half
of the run-up was on falling volume.  About half-way through the move
volume turned around sharply and increased.  The extra supply slowed and
doomed the rally just as it reached the resistance line.  This is
classic "distribution" behavior.  Prices were run-up by restricting the
supply of stock, then the holders released their stock, selling into the
strength.  That's how the pro's on the Street make money.  If you can
see this going on it helps you avoid, ahem, contributing to their
profits.  The thing is, if they don't want to be holders now, what does
that mean?

Today the non-partisan Conference Board released its Leading Economic
Indicators, and they fell more than expected in August.  It has been
falling for the past couple months.  Oil prices hit $49/bbl again
intra-day.  So prices were underwater again all day, and although the
range was only about 6pts they were jerked around a lot.  Volume fell a
bit, but was still +8% above average.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     _<__     __>_     __<_     __<_     ___>     09/17
 _<__     _<__     __|_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/20
 __|_     _<__     __|_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/21
 <___     _<__     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___>     09/22
 _<__     _<__     _|__     __|_     _<__     ___>     09/23

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  09/23/04 S&P:    1108
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     12pts

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... No opportunity is lost; someone else takes it. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .