Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Sep 22 2004 06:56 pm


"Prices sink on oil, Morgan Stanley."  That's what I'm talking about!
It's not that these sorts of things in the news might not be real
problems, but that they are immediately accepted by investors and the
market reacts!  If you've been an investor very long you should have
seen days when the market got news like this and shrugged it off.

Prices fell more than enough to be significant, right from the opening
bell, and volume increased to +15% above average.  That's more than
enough for my formula to call it a "Distribution Day", when the big
investors are "distributing" their holdings out into the market.  They
were willing to sell even if they were getting less than they valued
their portfolio at just last evening.  Volume is the proof!  They were
serious about selling!  It was a broadbased sell-off too.  You can see
the Oscillator has fallen below the line.

Look, the market could start a new Bull Market tomorrow.  I always have
to accept that.  All year it's been in this trading range, and as I
suggested a few days ago, there's good historical reason for that.  But
it's going to have to break out of it in a convincing way before I'm
going to believe it has changed its ways.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     _<__     __>_     _|__     __|_     ___>     09/16
 __|_     _<__     __>_     __<_     __<_     ___>     09/17
 _<__     _<__     __|_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/20
 __|_     _<__     __|_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/21
 <___     _<__     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___>     09/22

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  08/24/04 S&P:    1096
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... They also surf, who only stand on waves.... ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .