Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Sep 21 2004 06:11 pm


The Fed raised rates today, and the market liked it!  There's an old saw
on the Street, "three steps and a stumble".  This is what, the second?
Normally, rising interest rates, intended to slow the economy, cause the
market to fall.  I think this time there's a perception that maybe the
Fed has been a little slow because the economic recovery has been slow,
even debatable, and that if they ARE raising rates then the economy
really IS recovering.  Well, let's not forget they really don't want to
influence the election by raising rates next time.

Prices were modestly higher all morning.  When the Fed announcement was
released prices zig-zagged on heavier trading, but once again after a
pause for reflection the Street charged ahead on brisker trading.  My
formula nearly called it an accumulation day, prices were up nearly half
way to being significant on their own and volume was up just over +10%
above average.  Close, but no cigar.

I think the thing we have to remember uppermost is: these days the
market is reacting to the daily news.  The interpretation of the Fed's
action is debatable at best and the effect it will have on the market is
equally questionable.  It's hardly reason enough to jump into the
market.  This is day-trader territory.  The only thing I'd be doing
these days is selling; taking profits, applying the 7% Solution to cut
my losses, and taking advantage of spikes to cut losses on positions I
was SURE would come back even after they sank below 7% losses.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     _<__     __>_     __|_     __<_     ___>     09/15
 __|_     _<__     __>_     _|__     __|_     ___>     09/16
 __|_     _<__     __>_     __<_     __<_     ___>     09/17
 _<__     _<__     __|_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/20
 __|_     _<__     __|_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/21

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  08/24/04 S&P:    1096
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Why is it "a pair of pants" when it's all one piece? ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .