Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Sep 16 2004 09:59 pm

Prices were up all day, but never as much as 6pts.  It would take nearly
15pts for the price change to be significant.  Volume fell to -7% below
average.

The market could turn around, but it's beginning to look like this
trading range's resistance line will turn away prices for the SEVENTH
time this year.

"No excuses."  Sometime that can really help us cut through all the,
err, obfuscation.  That idea occurred to me last night as I heard an
analysis of the claims and counter-claims being made by the campaigns.
"No excuses" can cut through all the obfuscation of the campaigns.
We've all heard the excuses: that the economy really began to bottom and
turn around in the last year of Bush I, that it began to turn down in
the last year of Clinton, but neither were recognized soon enough, 9/11,
the war on terrorism, etc.  It's really very difficult to judge what was
an unsurmountable problem, what was a success, what was a missed
opportunity, what was done as well as it could have, and what was just
flubbed, and opinions abound.  Late last year my commentary remembered
those last days of Bush I, and suggested if the Administration really
wanted a second term they'd better see that the economy, jobs, etc., is
PERCEIVED to have recovered and voters really are better off than they
were four years ago.  But all the charges and counter-charges, all the
rhetoric, all the excuses have to fall by the wayside, when we get to
the bottom line question.  Ultimately the electorate has just one
question to answer: four more years or not?

Do you use "no excuses" to evaluate your investments, your strategy and
tactics?  There's just one simple question to answer about every
investment:  did it make enough money to compensate for the risk?
Forget what the market did, the earnings surprizes, all the excuses for
why the investment did not perform.  Did it work?  For that matter,
apply "no excuses" rigor to how you came to the expectations you had for
the investment.  Did reality and expectations meet?  If not, why not?
What needs to change?  If so, why?  What kept them on track?

If we demand "no excuses" from our candidates, it's equally valid to
demand it of our investments, and ourselves.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     __|_     __>_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/10
 __|_     _<__     __>_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/13
 __>_     _<__     __>_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/14
 _|__     _<__     __>_     __|_     __<_     ___>     09/15
 __|_     _<__     __>_     _|__     __|_     ___>     09/16

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  08/24/04 S&P:    1096
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Oh, give me a phone, with a modem on loan.. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .