Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Sep 13 2004 05:46 pm


I'll bet you thought Wednesday was "Hump Day"?  Well, that pretty much
describes prices today.  If there was anything remarkable it is how
smooth the transitions were all day.  It's reported oil prices climbed a
buck today on threat of Ivan.  Can someone explain to me how this
hurricane is threatening crude oil supplies, or refined product demand?
We're gettting ripped off.

In summary, prices closed essentially unchanged.  Volume was higher than
recent weeks, but still subdued at +7% above average.

This increase in volume has my attention.  Is the game afoot?  The
Street has ways of sneaking prices higher on minimal volume, and
unloading near tops with little change in prices but heavier volume.
Those typically presage profit-taking.  Similarly, if a real Bullish
move is coming, you'll usually notice heavier volume around lows but
without prices being driven lower.

But the problem I have right now is while volume has been higher than
average, that is the Moving Average, 1296Ms, it's considerably below the
simple Arithmetic Average for the past 21 months, 1377Ms.  Of course,
that doesn't say much for the quality of this last month's rally either.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     __>_     __|_     _<__     ___|     ___>     09/07
 _|__     __|_     __|_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/08
 __|_     __|_     __>_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/09
 __|_     __|_     __>_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/10
 __|_     _<__     __>_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/13

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  08/24/04 S&P:    1096
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... People don't want 1/4" drills - they want 1/4" holes. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .