Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Sep 08 2004 06:17 pm


Greenspan testified today the economy has gotten over its "soft patch",
but the market wasn't encouraged.  The Fed's Beige Book today showed
some aspects of the economy and some regions of the country aren't
encouraging.  Prices porpoised downward, several times trying to recover
and failing more each time, showing a sequence of lower highs and lower
lows.  And, importantly, volume increased to +2% above average.  There
was more selling today than buying yesterday.

So what's going on?  Why didn't the market go up with Greenspan's
reassurances?

In the first place, "why" is a matter of interpretation unless you're
places on Wall Street none of us is ever going to get to, and these days
it's hard to interpret without getting our political persuasions in the
way.  So pay attention to the "what".  Accept the fact that it did.
Remember that it's only one day, but it does represent the attitude of
buyers and sellers right now!

So, given this is my interpretation, I think the Street is paying more
attention to yesterday's information from the NONPARTISAN Congressional
Budget Office.  The current deficit is only the tip of the iceberg.
There was much more information about the direction things are going.
The sound bite that didn't make it to the nightly news was "You're not
going to grow your way out of this one."  And their prediction for what
will be happening over the next decade, with permanent tax cuts, another
decade of supporting involvement in Afghanistan and Iraq, and retiring
Boomers, is downright scarey.

I keep telling you, Wall Street isn't swayed by political rhetoric like
the rest of us are.  If you've got strong opinions prompted by the
political campaigns, you'd have been well advised to sit this year out
of the market.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___|     ___>     09/01
 __>_     __>_     __|_     _<__     ___|     ___>     09/02
 _>__     __>_     __|_     <___     __>_     ___>     09/03
 __>_     __>_     __|_     _<__     ___|     ___>     09/07
 _|__     __|_     __|_     __<_     __|_     ___>     09/08

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  08/24/04 S&P:    1096
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Post unto others as you'd have others post unto you ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .