Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Sep 07 2004 04:25 pm


Tha market "gapped-up" at today's opening--not surprizingly, since the
rest of the world markets were trading yesterday and our markets had to
catch up.  The green numbers survived an afternoon decline and mostly
recovered.  Volume improved up to -2% below average.  The newsbots
attributed it to OPEC's President announcing there is no supply
shortage--that the recent run-up in prices was just "political".  "Price
gouging", I'd say.

After slipping below twice last month, prices climbed back into the
year's declining trading range, or channel.  They've been moving across
the channel during this last, if you insist, "rally".  Today I have the
upper bound, the "resistance line" at 1135, 14pts higher.  If volatility
continues to grow, that would make it easier to reach.  Or should I say,
if prices increase enough to reach the resistance line, volatility would
naturally increase.  Either way, I'd be surprized if it penetrated
decisively just yet.  I've noticed no Bulls in this market, and it's
going to take a herd of them to drive the market higher.  Let's get
through September's end-of-summer, see what the mutual fund managers
deal us in October, and see what the Street thinks of the campaign in
November.  None of those is a sure bet either way, there's no need to
gamble, or gambol, in the market now.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __|_     __|_     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___>     08/31
 __|_     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___|     ___>     09/01
 __>_     __>_     __|_     _<__     ___|     ___>     09/02
 _>__     __>_     __|_     <___     __>_     ___>     09/03
 __>_     __>_     __|_     _<__     ___|     ___>     09/07

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  08/24/04 S&P:    1096
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Thesaurus - dinosaur with a large vocabulary. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .