Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Sep 03 2004 06:31 pm


I've been saying the campaign was going to make this a tough season for
investing.  Economic data released today showed businesses created
144,000 new jobs last month.  Wall Street analysts were expecting
150,000.  According to economists quoted by AP, 200,000/mo are necessary
for a growing economy.  Also, the first-time Unemployment Rate dropped
to 5.4%.

The problem is the interpretation of this data is a political football!
Is that good or bad?  It depends on who's doing the talking.  I've got a
better answer, from an investor's point of view:  What impact does it
have on the market?  (One small problem: this is the Friday before Labor
Day Weekend.  Can you say "holiday light", boys and girls?)

Today the DJIA had an early abortive rally, but for most of the day it
was underwater.  Yesterday's close seemed to be an effective resistance
line, turning-back prices when they reached that level.  The story on
the NASDAQ/OTC was much worse.  Intel reduced expectations and the whole
tech sector took it in the neck.  The DJIA is 30 stocks, and the common
NASDAQ index is 100 stocks, and both are included in the S&P 500.  So
even if the weightings are different, the S&P ("the Market" in my view)
was somewhere in the middle--down modestly.  Volume was -26% below
average--as expected before a holiday weekend, curing a period when
volume has been light anyhow.

With such light volume it wouldn't have taken much enthusiasm to drive
prices dramatically higher.  Ignoring the NASDAQ because of the Intel
news, and taking the DJIA as an indication of the Street's reaction to
the economic data, it doesn't seem to have made a positive impact on the
Street.  That's the best independent, non-political judgement I can
offer.

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 _|__     __|_     __|_     <___     __|_     ___>     08/30
 __|_     __|_     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___>     08/31
 __|_     __|_     __|_     _<__     ___|     ___>     09/01
 __>_     __>_     __|_     _<__     ___|     ___>     09/02
 _>__     __>_     __|_     <___     __>_     ___>     09/03

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  08/24/04 S&P:    1096
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Columbus didn't discover America, he invaded it. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .