Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Aug 31 2004 05:10 pm


Once again the market reacted to the news, not the economy.  The morning
was plagued by Consumer Confidence data falling substantially below
expectations, reportedly on lagging jobs.  Watch for employment data on
Friday for confirmation.  A late rally, accompanied by a rare spike in
volume, rescued the day.  It was so sharp, I rather suspect some news
item was responsible.   Nevertheless, the total range of the day was
within 10pts, so we're not talking momentous movements here.  Overall
volume picked up a bit, but was still -13% below average.

I remain skeptical of this supposed rally we've been having for the past
3-4 weeks.  Prices have been up, approaching the 200-day Moving average.
The Oscillator has been up, indicating a broad base of stocks have been
participating.  But volume has been falling precipitously.  Of the
three, of course price is the least significant--it's the result of the
other two.  And when it comes to a push between the Oscillator and
volume, "No Volume, No Bull", if you know what I mean.  ;-)

September and October are upon us, both with terrible reputations for
Wall Street Bulls.  Consider this an early warning that many mutual
funds will be closing their fiscal year end's in October.  So expect
them to be in the market heavily, trying to buff-up their appearance.
Managers will be weaving annual reports.  "Oh, no!  That's been a
terrible stock this year.  We don't have a significant position in that
stock." with their fingers crossed behind their backs, hoping nobody
finds out they did until a few weeks ago!

 Price    Vola-    Momen-   Volume   Oscil-   Summ.
 Change   tility   tum               lator    Index
 -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+     -__+

 __>_     __|_     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___>     08/25
 __>_     __>_     __|_     <___     __|_     ___>     08/26
 __>_     __>_     __|_     <___     ___>     ___>     08/27
 _|__     __|_     __|_     <___     __|_     ___>     08/30
 __|_     __|_     __|_     _<__     __|_     ___>     08/31

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  08/24/04 S&P:    1096
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Sure, when...OINK FLAP OINK FLAP...Well I'll be damned! ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .