Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Aug 25 2004 04:34 pm


The market was flat until noon, then it rose nicely into the close.
"Did ya' mean it?"  "Not really."  Volume rose a bit, but was still -12%
below average.  Crude futures closed below $44/bbl, that may account for
it.  Some economic data released today was equivocal.

Too bad, the Advance/Decline ratio was better than 2:1, indicating it
was a broad-based rally.  That seems to have been happening about every
other day over the past couple weeks.  That's good to see, but it
wouldn't be enough to persuade me to try to play this market.  These
price moves are being exaggerated by the low volume.  There's no
indication there's enough Bullish interest to sustain a high volume
rally.  It probably wouldn't take too much "profit taking" to dry up
such buyers as there are.  This market is too "fragile" to play.

The other thing you might look at is: we're approaching the 50-day &
200-day moving averages--from below!  They may very well act as
technical resistance.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _>__      _<__      _|__      _|__      __>_      __|_     08/19
 __>_      _<__      __|_      _|__      ___>      __|_     08/20
 _>__      _|__      _|__      |___      __|_      __>_     08/23
 __|_      _|__      __|_      _|__      __|_      __>_     08/24
 __>_      __|_      __|_      _<__      __|_      ___>     08/25

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: BUY        Date:  08/24/04 S&P:    1096
Winner or Loser:  tbd                   By:     tbd

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... The bugs will go away when you turn off the computer! ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .