Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Aug 23 2004 03:59 pm

One thing my commentaries have tried to address is the paradox that we
really do want things to happen in the market that seem to be against
our best interests, i.e. cause the market to go down.  Not only do
Dollar Cost Averagers want the opportunity to accumulate cheaper shares,
the rest of us now have the experience of irrational exuberance driving
stocks into a bubble, and the necessary return to rationality, q.v. the
Japanese market over the past couple decades.  In the short run we must
attend to details and not "lose big" when the market goes down; as in
poker, if we can't ante-up then we can't play the game.

Now I'm going to put a decidedly political spin on this paradox and get
it out of my system.  A friend once accused me of being a "Democrat".
I replied, "Proudly, sir, but that's with a small 'd'."

As one of those short run details, you must vote. Try your best to pick
the best candidate, not just of your own political persuasion, but to
represent the entire country.  Don't let yourself be dissuaded because
they aren't your perfect candidate, or the campaign is nasty.  (I can't
remember the last time I didn't feel I was voting for the lesser of two
evils.)  Vote for the "best" candidate anyway.

When it's over, truly accept the judgement of the electorate.  It
doesn't matter as much as we'd like to think in the long run.

The true genius of our "founding fathers" was their astute realization
that a "static balance", as typically represented by hereditary
monarchies and empires, cannot create a stable society.  You cannot turn
a broom upside-down and balance it on the floor.  You can put the handle
in your palm and by moving it around, constantly making corrections,
keep the heavy bristle-end upper-most and stable.  If necessary, you can
even walk it into the next room.  Our founding fathers gave us a
constitution which creates a "dynamic balance", and a stable government
and country for the past couple centuries through tremendous social and
technological change.  We have had good Presidents and bad, good
Congresses and bad, and we will again.  But it is exactly because we go
through these regular "mid-course corrections" that the United States
has survived from the agrarian 18th Century to the technological 21st.

As Ben Franklin said, "A republic, madam, if you can keep it."  (We were
incredibly fortunate to receive it!  How many other societies didn't?
Romans had it and lost it.)  But this is how we keep it a viable and
vital republic, by voting, by adapting our government to the needs of
the people, however imprecisely.  Even if they seem to be going in the
wrong direction, just as with the broom-balancing, we have to take these
"excursions" so we can detect where the balancing point is and bring the
center of balance to stability over its support, even as that changes.
Dynamic balance is never perfect balance, but it is stable in a way
static balance never can be.

Vote, and be at peace with the results.  You may want your candidate to
win, but if he doesn't--you want that too!  Embrace the paradox!

So what the market did today is really irrelevant, but if you must know:
it really was irrelvant.  The entire range was just above 6pts, to all
intents and purposes "unchanged", and volume was -25% below average.  My
timing signal reversed itself again, but since I didn't believe Friday's
Buy signal on -12% below average volume, I don't put much more faith in
this one.  The last believeable signal was the Sell just before the
Fourth of July.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      _|__      _|__      _|__      __>_      __<_     08/17
 __>_      _|__      _|__      _|__      __>_      __<_     08/18
 _>__      _<__      _|__      _|__      __>_      __|_     08/19
 __>_      _<__      __|_      _|__      ___>      __|_     08/20
 _>__      _|__      _|__      |___      __|_      __>_     08/23

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  08/23/04 S&P:    1096
Winner or Loser:  Loser                 By:     -3

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Recursion: See "recursion". ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .