Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Aug 18 2004 05:21 pm


Prices continue the week's progress higher, nearly popping a Buy signal
in my timing indicator.  Volume also continued to sneak higher a little
bit too, but still -6% below average.

Restriced supply has caused prices to rise.  I wouldn't confuse this
with a rally, even if I'm inclined to pay more attention to the first
signal from my timing indicator.  And now some eager investors are
beginning to make that mistake--they don't want to get left behind.  So
if I was so inclined, there's plenty of supply being held back.  I'd be
watching for supply coming into the market, and mark that as the time to
get out of these short-term positions.  We have to understand selling
tactics just as well as buying tactics.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _>__      _>__      _<__      __<_      _|__      __<_     08/12
 __|_      __>_      _<__      _<__      _|__      __<_     08/13
 __>_      __>_      _|__      _|__      __>_      __<_     08/16
 __>_      _|__      _|__      _|__      __>_      __<_     08/17
 __>_      _|__      _|__      _|__      __>_      __<_     08/18

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Rogers' Third Law: There's no such thing as teaching, only learning. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .