Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Aug 17 2004 04:12 pm


Yesterday we were told the market rose because crude contracts fell less
than half a buck.  I didn't believe it.  Today crude closed up the
better part of a buck (I saw quotes of 57 or 70 cents), closing at
$46.75/bbl.  So did the market fall?  Today the market was in positive
territory all day!  Volume rose modestly, but still -7% below average.

The reporters have to present SOMETHING; it doesn't have to be right.
(Your broker has a vested interest in you doing SOMETHING with your
money; he doesn't have to be right.)  It's good to do one's own
analysis.  One can do surprizingly well determining the direction of the
market by collecting just four numbers a day.  The key is discipline,
both in DOING it daily, and using an analysis which has been tested for
effectiveness.  Never believe though that ANY analysis can predict the
future.  Tools similar to these can be used on individual stocks too.

Discipline, and tools, can help us control emotion in our investing.
Emotional decisions are almost always good ways to lose money.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _>__      _>__      _|__      __<_      _|__      __<_     08/11
 _>__      _>__      _<__      __<_      _|__      __<_     08/12
 __|_      __>_      _<__      _<__      _|__      __<_     08/13
 __>_      __>_      _|__      _|__      __>_      __<_     08/16
 __>_      _|__      _|__      _|__      __>_      __<_     08/17

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Remember when unsafe sex was being caught in the act. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .