Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Aug 16 2004 04:58 pm


Prices spent the nicely in positive territory all day, up enough to be
significant on their own, in fact.  The movement was broadly based,
advancers led decliners by a 7:2 ratio.  "Did ya' mean it?"  Volume rose
very modestly and was still down -12% below average.  Nope!

The media says the reason is no terrorist attacks on Athens' opening
ceremonies, and lower oil prices today.  Oil closed 36 cents lower, and
still above $45/bbl.  Does that seem reasonable?  I think they're
grasping at straws.

I think it's probably no more than normal "snapback" behavior in a
market that has fallen about 100pts in the past 8 weeks or so.  Rising
prices on lower volume means sellers/holders have dried up the supply of
stock.  Buyers have to pay up for what they want, but they're not
wanting much.  That's NOT a Bullish sign.  I'm not changing my position.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      _>__      _|__      _<__      _|__      __<_     08/10
 _>__      _>__      _|__      __<_      _|__      __<_     08/11
 _>__      _>__      _<__      __<_      _|__      __<_     08/12
 __|_      __>_      _<__      _<__      _|__      __<_     08/13
 __>_      __>_      _|__      _|__      __>_      __<_     08/16

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Blessed are the pessimists, for they made backups. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .