Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Aug 13 2004 04:32 pm


The market action was uninspiring today, mostly up modestly during the
morning, but unchanged with a blip down during the afternoon.  Volume
was down to -14% below average, and that says uninspiring.  The U of
Mich. consumer confidence survey numbers released to day were lower.

I've got a chart that shows prices with the 20-day, 50-day, and 200-day
simple Moving Averages.  The shorter the period the quicker it registers
a change in trend.  Technicians commonly watch the 50 & 200 day
averages.  I add the 20-day as something of an "early warning."  When
prices are above the moving averages, and they are in sequential order
below, the market is moving upward and everything is happiness.  Most
technicians watch for prices falling below the intermediate trend of the
50-day moving average.  Then they tend to dump their risky positions.
When prices fall below the longer term trend 200-day Moving Average,
then they prepare for prices going even lower.  If they stay down long
enough and strong enough for the 50-day line to move below the 200-day
line, then it's really time to batten down the hatches and board-up the
windows.  I may have to shift even more of my IRA into money market
funds.

Well, the 50-day moving average is only 3pts above the 200-day and
approaching.  The 20-day passed thru a couple weeks ago.  I hope you're
ready for this.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      _>__      _|__      <___      _<__      __|_     08/09
 __<_      _>__      _|__      _<__      _|__      __<_     08/10
 _>__      _>__      _|__      __<_      _|__      __<_     08/11
 _>__      _>__      _<__      __<_      _|__      __<_     08/12
 __|_      __>_      _<__      _<__      _|__      __<_     08/13

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... "I think not," said Descartes - and promptly disappeared. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .