Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Aug 11 2004 03:30 pm


Yesterday, did I say "the market will find something else to worry about
soon"?  Is today soon enough?  In reporting its results after the market
yesterday, Cisco's CEO said it's done its job as well as possible, but
its customers are less optimistic about future growth than they were
earlier in the year.  (Do you suppose they could all be Democrats?)  The
NASDAQ/OTC tanked and drug the DJIA down with it.  The DJIA made it back
to the line just before closing, but not the OTC.  The S&P closed down
modestly, but volume rose to +2% above average.

So Greenspan still thinks the economy is recovering, and his people
probably have their fingers on the pulse of most of the relevant
statistics and the best models to plug them into.  CEO's have been
notably reluctant to commit to growth in the USA for a few years now.
Their enthusiasm in the 90's contributed to the bubble, but are they
over-reacting now?  They certainly have the power to create a self-
fulfilling prophecy, because without jobs for consumers the economy will
go into a death spiral.

Perhaps the most venerable saying on the Street is: "Don't fight the
tape."  My market action charts look predominantly negative, albeit
better than they did during the Bear Market.  I still think this is a
good time to run your strategy on the conservative side, small "c".  My
IRA is mostly in money market funds now, and I like it that way.  But
then my personal strategy would best be called "Wealth Preservation".
If you're a Dollar Cost Averager with an extended horizon, this is the
time to accumulate.  If your horizon is closer, you also need some
wealth preservation in your strategy.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 <___      _<__      _|__      _|__      _<__      __<_     08/05
 <___      _>__      _|__      __|_      _<__      __|_     08/06
 __<_      _>__      _|__      <___      _<__      __|_     08/09
 __<_      _>__      _|__      _<__      _|__      __<_     08/10
 _>__      _>__      _|__      __<_      _|__      __<_     08/11

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Ground water? Do you mean crushed ice? ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .