Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Tue Aug 10 2004 04:34 pm


"The Fed will rationalize rates this afternoon.  That's good."  "Oh no,
they still raised rates!  That's bad."  "No, that's good!"  That pretty
much describes the day's trading.  Prices began up modestly and levelled
off until the Fed's announcement.  Then there was an immediate pull-back
followed by rising prices into the close.  Trading volume was also
higher after the announcement, but in total was still down -10% below
average.  So it wasn't a bad day, but prices give a somewhat misleading
picture of the market condition.  Never fear, the market will find
something else to worry about soon.  Crude prices did top $45--over $1/g
before refining!

The last six weeks or so have been pretty bearish, not entirely without
justification mind you.  So it wouldn't be at all surprizing for there
to be a short "snap-back" rally, but don't mistake that for sight of a
Bull.  I still think there's more bad news weighing on the Market than
good, and little good news in prospect.  That might mean it's a good
time to nibble, but don't marry your stocks.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _|__      <___      _|__      _|__      _|__      __<_     08/04
 <___      _<__      _|__      _|__      _<__      __<_     08/05
 <___      _>__      _|__      __|_      _<__      __|_     08/06
 __<_      _>__      _|__      <___      _<__      __|_     08/09
 __<_      _>__      _|__      _<__      _|__      __<_     08/10

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... When you are stuck in a hole, stop digging. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .