Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Aug 09 2004 04:45 pm


Prices were up fractionally more than a point, but don't ket that go to
your head.  We always ask for confirmation, "Did ya' mean it?"  No!
Volume was down -21% below average.

The Fed meets tomorrow, and it's said the Street is waiting to see of
they continue to raise rates at a "measured pace", or whether last
week's weak payroll and unexpectedly low consumer spending will give the
Fed pause.  In the absence of the large money managers on the trading
floor providing supply, the marginal demand was enough to drive prices
up as buyers paid for the stocks from unwilling sellers.  So the word on
the Street seems to be confirmed by the trading action.  I'm not sure,
and I'm not sure the Street is sure, which way the Street wants the Fed
to go.  Doing nothing might imply there's no "rosey scenario" in sight.
I think chances are pretty good the market goes down no matter which way
they go.

I think the greater question is why these people were surprized?
Political considerations aside, as they must be, it's no secret
high-wage, high-cost (depending on your point of view) jobs have been
going over-seas for years.  It's also no secret CEO's have not been
confident enough to hire permanent staff, preferring here-today,
gone-tomorrow temps for years.  Sure there are a lot of new cars on the
streets now, largely as a result of "give-away", 0% financing, deals by
dealers for a couple years.  We were hearing at the time they were
canibalizing future sales, and the chickens are coming home to roost!
The APPEARANCE of consumers being well off depends on where you look,
and is only skin-deep at best.  Do YOU know anybody who is prepared to
walk away from an existing job, isn't more afraid of losing it?  I think
the consumer spending numbers are correct: the American public IS very
concerned about the economy.  The cadidates may be taking advantage of
that, playing it up or playing it down, but don't let the candidate of
your choice pull the wool over your eyes about the real state of
affairs.  Watch what the Street is doing!

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _>__      _<__      _|__      _|__      __>_      __<_     08/03
 _|__      <___      _|__      _|__      _|__      __<_     08/04
 <___      _<__      _|__      _|__      _<__      __<_     08/05
 <___      _>__      _|__      __|_      _<__      __|_     08/06
 __<_      _>__      _|__      <___      _<__      __|_     08/09

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Columbus didn't discover America, he invaded it. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .