Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Aug 05 2004 05:01 pm 

It was an ugly day on the Street.  Russia did an about face with Yukos
and crude hit new record highs.  I thought Bush was in tight with
"Putey"--this isn't helping his chances.  Russia might be trying to make
a point for the benefit of its oligarchs, but it's not doing any favors
for the world.  I heard a commentator say, "Well, at least it was on
light volume."  That may mean something when the market is in a
Bull/Bear trend, but now it just means investors are ignoring the market
and the Street.

Do we really want our economy tied so tightly to the rest of the world
that the tax problems of one Russian company can affect our markets like
this?

Anyway, prices fell enough to be significant, but volume rose only
marginally to -1% below average.  The ratio of Up-volume to Down-volume
was about 1:8!  This might have been a distribution day, as I suggested
above, except I suspect a lot of investors have already pulled out and
are just sitting on the sidelines.  We're already below the moving-
averages, and today we plunged toward the bottom of the Trading Range.
No, I WOULDN'T want to guess where prices might find some support and a
"bottom".

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __>_      _<__      _|__      _>__      __>_      __<_     07/30
 __>_      _<__      _|__      _|__      __>_      __<_     08/02
 _>__      _<__      _|__      _|__      __>_      __<_     08/03
 _|__      <___      _|__      _|__      _|__      __<_     08/04
 <___      _<__      _|__      _|__      _<__      __<_     08/05

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html
Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Q:What must I do to convince you people? Worf:Die. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .