Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Jul 28 2004 04:10 pm


Early Tuesday afternoon a truck driving down my street snagged an
overhead cable and ripped out my phone line.  The repair crew didn't
bother to check their work by asking if I had "dial-tone" before they
left, so I had no telecommunication service until this morning--it was
like a teenager without a cell phone.  So my commentary and mini-charts
today will cover both days.  I'm hoping the final numbers I found for
yesterday were correct.

My formulas called Tuesday an Accumulation day when buyers were
(finally) active.  Prices were up, though not enough to be significant
all on their own, but volume was up +16% above average.  As I write this
Wednesday morning before the close, I'm skeptical.  We were very near
the lower "support" line of the year's trading range.  I suspect it was
just a normal "correction" after the market being grumpy for so long.

Wednesday the market fell at first, levelled our at mid-day, and rose in
the afternoon, until a few minutes before closing.  In the end prices
were basically unchanged and volume shrank a bit to +12% above average.

Technicians call this a "cup and handle" formation, though the handle
was abbreviated.  I mention that, not because it's particularly
informative in day trading, but because it showed such a classic
pattern.  Oil was given as the excuse for the morning trade, and the
Fed's Beige Book for the afternoon.  That, and a buck might get you a
cup of coffee.

If you look at a chart pattern for the year it might appear as though
the next move in the market would be a return to the upper "resistance"
line of this trading range.  You could buy now, ride it up to, well,
today it would be 1140, then sell, maybe even short some, and make a
tidy profit this summer.  I wouldn't, it's a trap!  When things look
this obvious the market rarely goes that way.  The Street finds ways to
relieve the smug optimists of their money.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      _>__      _|__      ___>      _<__      ___|     07/22
 _<__      __>_      _|__      _>__      <___      ___|     07/23
 _<__      __>_      _<__      __>_      <___      ___<     07/26
 __|_      __|_      _<__      __>_      _<__      __<_     07/27
 __>_      _|__      _<__      __>_      _|__      __<_     07/28

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Post unto others as you'd have others post unto you ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .