Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Jul 23 2004 03:48 pm


"Microsoft, Amazon Push Stocks Lower!"  "Stocks Drop as Earning Reports
Disappoint!"  Oh, gimme a break!  As if the market hadn't been
struggling, well, all year.  Just look at the decidedly negative
position of the Oscillator, below, showing a negative trend.

It continued today.  There was hardly a blip upward all session.  Down-
Volume outpaced Up-Volume nearly 4:1.  The good news, such as it was,
was volume which fell to -2% below average.

A couple days ago I suggested there might be some minor support near the
1075 area, at the bottom of the trading range.  Now it appears to me
technicians have been looking more at the 200-day Moving Average than
the trading range, so I'm not expecting technical support.  Ultimately,
these technical factors are no more than self-fulfilling prophecies, so
rallies and corrections end when they've run their course.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      _>__      _|__      __>_      __|_      ___|     07/19
 __|_      _>__      _|__      __>_      __|_      ___|     07/20
 |___      __>_      _|__      ___>      _|__      ___|     07/21
 __|_      _>__      _|__      ___>      _<__      ___|     07/22
 _<__      __>_      _|__      _>__      <___      ___|     07/23

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... One good turn........gets most of the blankets. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .