Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Mon Jul 19 2004 07:34 pm


The market was down modestly most of the day, but much as in recent
days, jumping between levels.  Volume was just at average.  It all just
reinforces the view that the Street is grumpy.  Prices are now below all
the significant moving averages, and the 200-Day continues to coast
higher on prior momentum.

The Street wasn't happy with 3M today.  We saw part of the "expectation"
premium, which I wrote about recently, leave the stock today.  Recent
purchasers bought shares in the company, but also paid the premium for
how company earnings were expected to go.  Doesn't look the same today.

The intrinsic value of the company has changed little between Friday and
today.  Nevertheless, they need to protect themselves with the 7%
Solution.  I often write somewhat vaguely about both strategic and
tactical rules for investing.  (Vaguely, because there are a few rules
good for all investors, but a lot more which are variable.)  One might
look at this and say, "Well, 3M is still a good company."  That's where
I think there is a good tactical rule.  If I were ever to catch myself
thinking that, my reaction would be to sell if I were a holder, or run
away if I were contemplating buying.  What I detect there is looking for
an excuse to go against my better judgement.  That's letting emotion
drive my investing decisions, and that's almost always a mistake.

3M still IS a good company, but it's real value is less than even
today's price.  It's where the stock bottoms out and buyers are willing
to pay the price for all stock the panicky sellers want to unload.
Hence the old Wall Street adage, "Don't try to catch a falling knife."

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      _>__      _|__      _<__      __|_      ___>     07/13
 _|__      _>__      _|__      __<_      __|_      ___>     07/14
 _|__      _>__      _|__      __|_      __|_      ___|     07/15
 _<__      _>__      _|__      __>_      __|_      ___|     07/16
 _<__      _>__      _|__      __>_      __|_      ___|     07/19

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Aibohphobia (n.): The fear of palindromes... ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .