Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Fri Jul 16 2004 06:32 pm


Martha says covering your ankle bracelet in fleece fabric can prevent
chaffing, and a bow of Belgian lace can help hide that nasty
transmitter.  In the mean time it's a vacation at Club Fed for Martha.

The market ran up at the open this morning, but in a few minutes it saw
all the "higher" prices it was going to see.  By the end of the first
hour it had given it all back.  Then it hugged yesterday's closing like
spandex until, you know when!  At 2PM prices turned south again.  Volume
continued higher, up +10% above average.  That tells me the Street isn't
waiting around for any "summer rally".  Are you?

Prices also penetrated the 200-day Moving Average.  Now two things can
happen when prices get around this key support level; either buyers will
look in it as a great place to buy cheap stock, or they can treat it as
a dog with fleas.  I've been seeing more enthusiasm in the volume
numbers of late, but the action tells me it's selling, not buying!

This isn't time for panic, but I WILL remind you, one of the
possibilites I've always held out for the longer term picture of the
market is: 2003 was just another Bear Market Bull Trap!  Yes, the
economy looks good for now, but that could well be as much an artifact
of everybody's desire to be rid of the doom and gloom of 2000-2002, as
the premature optimism that creates the Bull Trap!

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __|_      _>__      _|__      _<__      __|_      ___>     07/12
 __|_      _>__      _|__      _<__      __|_      ___>     07/13
 _|__      _>__      _|__      __<_      __|_      ___>     07/14
 _|__      _>__      _|__      __|_      __|_      ___|     07/15
 _<__      _>__      _|__      __>_      __|_      ___|     07/16

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... I never used to be able to finish anything but now ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .