Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Thu Jul 15 2004 08:56 pm


What was I thinking?!  I track volume on the NYSE, the "Big Board".
Yesterday I wondered if some of the increased volume was from traders
bailing out of Intel.  NONE of it was--INTC trades on the OTC!  The
increase in NYSE volume could have been related to investors bailing on
other tech shares in "sympathy" with the Intel decline, but it wasn't
Intel.

Until mid-afternoon the market fluctuated, but late in the session gave
up.  Volume  fell a bit, but was still up +8% above average.

Since June 18th, when the S&P was nearly 30pts higher, volume has been
below average only 6 trading days.  So investors are selling, and in the
supply/demand equation excess supply drives prices down.  We're 4pts
above the 200-day moving average.  If you're not prepared to see most
stock prices lower, I'd get there.  Now, if this correction happens,
investors are going to rush to the few stocks that seem to be holding
up.  If you're there, you may see higher prices.  But that's going to
represent a "narrowing" of the market, and narrow towers tend to topple!
Protect yourself!

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 __<_      _>__      _|__      _|__      __<_      ___>     07/09
 __|_      _>__      _|__      _<__      __|_      ___>     07/12
 __|_      _>__      _|__      _<__      __|_      ___>     07/13
 _|__      _>__      _|__      __<_      __|_      ___>     07/14
 _|__      _>__      _|__      __|_      __|_      ___|     07/15

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... When woman go wrong, men go right after them. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .