Subj : Market Action To : All From : Paul Rogers Date : Wed Jul 14 2004 06:51 pm


The market rose modestly during the morning, turned and fell at about
the same speed all afternoon.  The afternoon session is longer.  The bad
news is that volume rose over 20%, to +12% above average.

I didn't think to check how much of the volume was Intel--it dropped
about 10% after its recent advisory about inventories, margins, and
expectations.  But I think there is a lesson for stock holders there.
When the panic starts there's no telling where it will stop.  Your
stop-loss order may not "save" you.  If you're holding a scarey
position--ummm, DON'T!  You have to understand the simple fact that the
daily trading level of stocks has a LARGE "enthusiasm" premium!  The
true value of the stock is the level at which professional investors
will buy it in spite of the "news".  It's "the bottom" for the stock,
NOT where it's "normally" trading.

So the price you pay for a stock is the current true value plus the
premium.  Likewise we sell for the current value plus the current
premium.  Forget the scam you're often told that you're buying a part, a
share, of the company.  What you're paying for is how much the current
holder wants to remain the holder--entirely different.  And that's why
you've never read any recommendations here about Fundamental Analysis.

 Price     Vola-     Momen-    Volume    Oscil-    Summ.
 Change    tility    tum                 lator     Index
 -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+      -__+

 _<__      >___      _|__      __|_      _|__      ___>     07/08
 __<_      _>__      _|__      _|__      __<_      ___>     07/09
 __|_      _>__      _|__      _<__      __|_      ___>     07/12
 __|_      _>__      _|__      _<__      __|_      ___>     07/13
 _|__      _>__      _|__      __<_      __|_      ___>     07/14

Timing Signals:  I don't use or recommend timing signals, but they're
fun to watch.  If I did though, well, I might use something like this.
(Be warned!!  It tends to whipsaw around signal points!)

Last Signal: SELL       Date:  07/02/04 S&P:    1125
Winner or Loser:  Winner                By:     +12

See my market tracking charts for '02-'03 and my investment strategy
study at my website(s):
http://www.xprt.net/~pgrogers/Pers.html
http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers/Pers.html
http://www.geocities.com/paulgrogers/Pers.html

Paul Rogers, paulgrogers@yahoo.com -o) http://www.angelfire.com/or/paulrogers /\\ Rogers' Second Law: Everything you do communicates. _\_V .... Every absurdity has a champion to defend it. ___ MultiMail/MS-DOS v0.35 --- * Origin: The Bare Bones BBS (1:105/360) .